5. February 2008 by emeris.

Thinking one is clever is one of the most dangerous things to think. While it is true that cleverness can be a great boon for such things at solving math problems, cleverness can also be a great curse because one does not always see the true consequences until it is much too late. Hence, I am exhausted.

One such example in recent history is the Gulliani campaign method. It was greatly clever, ignore the small states and save money for the big ones, unfortunately it failed utterly because this momentum business matters. A lot. But, if it had worked it would have been brilliant and changed the dynamic of how the primaries are run. This does bring up the question of how much the media really matters in elections and what their responsibilities are. Edwards wasn’t doing that badly in the early races, but received very little media attention. After losing his home state he dropped out, arguably a victim of information cascade as much as anything else.

This raises the question if it is good that information cascades play such a large role in our political system, if political systems can exist with out information cascades (functionally or theoretically), or if any attempts are being made to control such cascades.

On one hand the cascade is a rapid way to bring a lot of people to the same view point, however it doesn’t prevent them from all flipping a different direction en-mass (see the realignment with in the republican primaries and Obama’s uptick after Iowa). They also serve as a multiplier of efforts.  If you can talk some number of people to your side, then some other people who may not have received any additional information other than that more people support you, will also join your side based on the judgment of others. This is the implicit reason that endorsements are good for anything at all.

I don’t think a system can exist with out such cascades, given the highly connected nature of this country, nor would it be desirable.  It is valid to extrapolate information based on how other people behave, ie you see people flocking to or from a candidate then it is worth looking into it to see why.

The far larger concern is if there are groups/powers that be that are trying covertly to manipulate the cascades (it is clear the candidates are overtly trying to manipulate them) and if we could even tell if someone was trying/succeeding at it.

Posted in politics, random | 2 Comments »

5. February 2008 by penny gwyn.

This is my new favorite word– http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/sardoodledom

Posted in vocabulary, cause I feel like it | 1 Comment »